In 2023, the average annual inflation rate stood at 11.4% year-on-year. This was exceptionally high result compared to the last two decades, but slightly lower than the result for 2022 (14.4% y/y). What about 2024? According to the Grant Thornton survey, currently, 65% of medium and large companies in Poland intend to increase prices for their products and services in the next 12 months, while only 2% plan to decrease them. The net index (the percentage of firms planning price increases minus the percentage planning decreases) is therefore 63 percentage points. This is one of the highest results of the survey, suggesting that inflation pressure is still strong, but much lower than a year ago, when the net index reached a record 74 percentage points.
Główny ekonomista Grant Thornton
After a sharp decline in inflation in the first quarter of 2024, it will start to rebound significantly in the following months. Mainly as a result of regulatory factors: from April, the 5% VAT rate on basic food products returns, and from July, energy prices for households will increase. However, the fundamental issues regarding inflation are other factors: the high level of budget deficit ("printing money out of thin air") and the lack of available workforce.
Results of research conducted by Grant Thornton as part of the annual International Business Report survey