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2025 – A Decline in the Number of Transactions in Poland
In recent years, the Polish M&A market has been characterized by high and relatively stable transaction activity. Between 2021 and 2024, the number of mergers and acquisitions increased steadily, reaching record levels.
In 2025, however, the previously observed growth trend slowed. The number of M&A transactions declined compared with 2024, particularly in the first half of the year. In the second half of 2025, the market regained momentum, resulting in a significant increase in completed transactions. This development was driven by several factors, most notably:
- expectations of lower interest rates and cheaper debt financing for transactions,
- pressure from international private equity funds that had already invested in the Polish market to expand their portfolio companies through inorganic growth,
- growing consolidation pressure across many industries,
- greater willingness of sellers to engage in negotiations,
- increasing interest among Polish companies in pursuing growth through M&A transactions,
- a substantial amount of uninvested capital accumulated during earlier periods of limited investment activity.
Outlook for the Polish M&A Market in 2026
The outlook for 2026 suggests a return of strong deal appetite and a clear increase in transaction activity following the relative slowdown observed in 2025. Poland has solid foundations to maintain and strengthen its position as the leading M&A market in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region—both as an attractive destination for foreign capital and as a dynamic environment for the expansion of domestic companies.
Below we present the key factors and trends expected to shape the transaction market in the coming year.
Key Growth Drivers of the Polish M&A market
- Improving macroeconomic conditions: The expected decline in interest rates should translate into greater availability of debt financing and lower financing costs. As a result, the number of transactions carried out by both strategic investors and private equity funds is likely to increase, particularly in segments requiring significant leverage.
- Availability of capital: The market continues to see a high level of uninvested capital (“dry powder”) held by investment funds. Additional stimulus will come from public funding under the National Recovery Plan (KPO) and EU funds directed to infrastructure, energy and technology projects, which often act as catalysts for M&A transactions.
- Narrowing valuation gap: Sellers who postponed exit decisions during periods of heightened uncertainty and lower valuations may become more willing to proceed with transactions as valuation multiples improve and market expectations stabilize.
Priority Sectors and Strategies in the Polish M&A market
- TMT and AI dominance: The technology, media and telecommunications sector will remain the primary driver of M&A activity. Artificial intelligence will play an increasingly significant role, both as a standalone acquisition target and as a key component of growth strategies and operational optimization for portfolio companies.
- Green transition and energy: Transaction volumes are expected to continue rising in renewable energy (RES), energy storage and infrastructure supporting the energy transition, largely driven by regulatory frameworks and public financing.
- Construction, industry and real estate: These sectors are expected to show particularly strong transaction prospects in 2026, supported by infrastructure investments, nearshoring trends and stabilization in the commercial real estate market.
- Consolidation (buy-and-build): The strong consolidation trend—combining smaller entities into larger investment platforms—is expected to continue, particularly in professional services, healthcare, IT and selected industrial segments.
- Succession and search funds: An increasing number of transactions are expected to arise from succession processes, including deals executed by search funds acquiring companies from owners without natural successors.
Regulatory and Operational Trends in the Polish M&A market
- Compliance as a standard: Regulatory developments such as the AI Act, the NIS2 Directive (cybersecurity) and ESG reporting obligations will become integral and critical elements of due diligence processes, influencing both transaction valuations and deal structures.
- Pricing mechanisms: In an environment of ongoing market uncertainty, more conservative pricing mechanisms will remain popular, including earn-outs (deferred payments linked to performance) and closing accounts mechanisms.
- Family foundations: Family foundations will remain an important and increasingly popular tool for succession planning and structuring the sale of businesses by individual owners. However, a certain level of tax uncertainty may persist until a consistent body of case law and practice emerges.
- Investment screening: Investors must expect a more rigorous foreign direct investment (FDI) screening regime as well as stricter regulatory and merger control requirements, including proceedings before the Polish competition authority (UOKiK), which may in practice extend transaction timelines.
We invite you to read the full report.